Read this https://oodlenoodleroodle.tumblr.com/post/178759883840/tbc-since-tumblrs-posting-methods-changed-linked

I’m convinced

Kavanaugh guilty

Most reported rapes are true.

False accusations are 2% or maybe 10%

He was a drunk and lied to Congress.

There are multiple accusations.


98% to 90% chance Ford is right.
98% to 90% chance Ramirez is right.

99% chance at least one is right.

Stu[id asshole libtards with fake math.

He’s Trump. High school was long ago. Who cares about dumb girls

There still has to be some standard of proof.

If it's a week-old rape claim, there are witnesses to interview, etc.

If it's a decades-old claim, it's much harder to prove.  Statute of limitations laws exist for a reason.

If all it takes is an accusation to ruin someone, that's not fair to the accused.

How are all these rape claims proven?  The defendant always admits it?  Courts always rule in favor of the woman, even when there's no evidence?

"Most reported rapes are true."

1% of reported rapes lead to felony convictions.

The standard is 99% true. That was met. The guy IS a sex criminal. You just don’t care.

FBI says 8% of reported rapes are eventually proven to be false.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/1996/96sec2.pdf

This of course doesn't include the reported rapes that are neither proven or disproven, which is a much much higher number given that only 1% lead to a conviction.

“1% of reported rapes lead to felony conviction”

Job interview is not a felony trial.

> FBI says 8% of reported rapes are eventually proven to be false.


So supports OP claim


p(ford lying) = 8%
P(Ramirez lying) = 8%

P(both lying) = 0.64%


Wow. He’s a rapist !!

For someone famous, conditional probability doesn't apply.

Person #1 comes forward, rewarded with fame and fortune and patreon donations.

Person #2 comes forward with a similar story

Is #2 genuine, or just copying #1?

Given she had 10s of people supporting the story, she’s believable.

> she had 10s of people supporting the story

10s?

Here's all the people you guys have mentioned as having testimony.

Therapist report:

- we haven't seen it. no one has.
- therapist won't back it up
- blasey herself says it doesn't mention Kavanaugh

Kids coach:

- hasn't seen her in years
- testifies that no later than June 29th, the day before she contacted the Washington Post, Blasey told him over email that Kavanaugh assaulted her.

Friend 1:

- remembers her mentioning an assault but says she never said by who

Friend 2:

- remembers her mentioning an assault but says she never said by who

Best friend from childhood, alleged direct witness:

- never met Kavanaugh, never partied with him, doesn't remember anything like that. Blasey reports that she is only saying that because she has health issues.

PJ:

- no recollection of such a party and doesn't sound like Kavanaugh at all

Squee:

- no recollection of such a party and doesn't sound like Kavanaugh at all

Husband:

- she mentioned Kavanaugh to me back in mid 2018 after he was shortlisted, and ONE time previously, though I don't want to specify the exact date. We also did counseling in 2012 where she mentioned "boys" attacking her.


Which of these are among the 10s of witnesses confirming her story, in your mind?