RIP Philo

BBC reports Trump will win in 2020

An in-depth analysis broadcast just now on BBC Radio 4 reached that conclusion.
Permalink Qaz 
November 7th, 2017 4:13pm
Trump has been an absolute disaster but if this means 4 more years of pissing Shylock off, it's good news indeed.
Permalink Reality Check 
November 7th, 2017 4:25pm
I'm waiting for my tax return in 2018 to decide.
Permalink brah! 
November 7th, 2017 4:29pm
I looked up your source. You misrepresented it.

They looked to people who predicted a Trump win in 2016 and asked if Trump would win again.

One guy said, no and, signs are he'll be impeached.

One group said, if the election was today, and he ran against Hillary again, he would still win. But he wouldn't necessarily win against anyone else.
Permalink Reality Check 
November 7th, 2017 4:31pm
You are referencing the wrong report,

I did not misrepresent the radio broadcast 'The Invisible Hand of Donald Trump'.

It's available on the BBCs iPlayer.
Permalink Qaz 
November 7th, 2017 5:02pm
BBC iPlayer is not available for me.
Permalink Lotti Fuehrscheim 
November 7th, 2017 5:20pm
The broadcast should be generally available as a podcast from tomorrow via the BBC World Service 'Documentary' program.
Permalink Qaz 
November 7th, 2017 5:22pm
But anyway, how would the BBC know the political landscape of 2020?

Who predicted Trump's victory in 2014?
Permalink Lotti Fuehrscheim 
November 7th, 2017 5:28pm
Trump loses to any halfway-decent opponent.

The question is "Can Democrats nominate a halfway-decent opponent?"

I still say impeachment is not happening.  There's no way Republicans would vote for it.  It would be a strictly party-line vote.  He could get impeached, but not convicted, if Democrats take the House in 2018.

There's also no benefit to Democrats for replacing Trump with Pence.  If Pence was an incumbent up for reelection in 2020, he'd have a chance.
Permalink FSK 
November 7th, 2017 6:48pm
Yeah the Pence thing. People said Pence was Trump's insurance policy. That was astute. He is level and straight. He'll get 100% of the conservative vote for sure. But also at least half the independents. He has no real scandals. Pence vs anyone, Pence wins. Even Sanders.

So if you get rid of Trump, which maybe they could do, then they lose for sure in 2020.

Instead it's clear their strategy is to let Trump ride it out, but constantly slander him and ridicule and violently threaten and assault his supporters, hoping that he'll then lose in 2020. It's having a backlash effect though. Everybody I know realizes the Russian stuff is absolute bullshit and the entire media is filled with compulsive liars.
Permalink Reality Check 
November 7th, 2017 6:54pm
Isn't one of the proven shitshow fake pollsters that did statistically invalid "adjustments" to show Clinton would win by a landslide?
Permalink Reality Check 
November 7th, 2017 8:25pm

That remains our outlook today in our final forecast of the year. Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model. (The models are essentially the same at this point, so they show about the same forecast.) This reflects a meaningful improvement for Clinton in the past 48 hours as the news cycle has taken a final half-twist in her favor. Her chances have increased from about 65 percent.

Our forecast has Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.6 percentage points, which is similar to her lead in recent national polls. Her chances of winning the popular vote are 81 percent, according to our forecast.

So what’s the source of all the uncertainty? And why does the same model1 that gave Mitt Romney only a 9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on the eve of the 2012 election put Trump’s chances about three times higher — 28 percent — this year? It basically comes down to three things:

First, Clinton’s overall lead over Trump — while her gains over the past day or two have helped — is still within the range where a fairly ordinary polling error could eliminate it.

Second, the number of undecided and third-party voters is much higher than in recent elections, which contributes to uncertainty.

Third, Clinton’s coalition — which relies increasingly on college-educated whites and Hispanics — is somewhat inefficiently configured for the Electoral College, because these voters are less likely to live in swing states. If the popular vote turns out to be a few percentage points closer than polls project it, Clinton will be an Electoral College underdog.
Permalink Not really 
November 7th, 2017 9:58pm
“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

This is still fundamentally the Democrats' plan. It is why they will lose in 2018 and 2020.